First it was on. And then it was off. Then someone said it might happen at some point. So what do all these on-again off-again Black Sabbath reunion rumours actually mean? We kicked Hugh Platt awake and demanded he bitch and moan about the subject for 1000-odd words. Bloody hell, Hugh, hurry up and get to the point.

Well, if this bickering in the press has told us one thing, it’s that the various members of Black Sabbath have definitely been trying to get what surely must be their final reunion off the ground. Take a few moments and go read those statements we’ve linked to up above – no-one at any point has refuted the quotes used in the Birmingham Mail’s original ‘Black Sabbath to reform with original line-up and new studio album’ article. It seems to me that it’s very much a case of the final details (i.e., how the $£$£ is going to be distributed) needing to be sorted out first. Everything said by both Tony Iommi and his manager, Ralph Baker, points towards this reformation actually happening.

Arguably, it’s Iommi and Ozzy that are the two heads butting over the concept of the Sabbath reunion. They’ve both sued each other for various real-or-imagined grievances over the years, either over who bailed who out of jail, who’s making money off marketing the Black Sabbath name, or a dozen other minor disputes. It seemed as though an uneasy truce (or at the very least, a workable Mexican stand-off) was reached in 2006, when Iommi agreed to perform under the moniker of Heaven & Hell for the Dio-fronted gathering of ex-Black Sabbath members, even though he technically owns the legal rights to perform under the Black Sabbath name. Iommi’s decision to use the new name to distinguish this new band from the Ozzy-fronted Black Sabbath shows of the previous decade seemed like something of a noble concession from the influential guitarist to his former cohort.

Watch the original line-up of Black Sabbath perform ‘Paranoid’ back in 2000:

Following the tragic death of Ronnie James Dio last year, Tony Iommi and Geezer Butler were very much left with a lot of time on their hands. After the shock had died down, here were a pair of – dare I say it – legendary musicians with nothing to do. Neither were about to kick start an entirely new band. They weren’t about to go recruiting any other former Black Sabbath warblers for another Heaven & Hell-style project either – can you imagine them calling up Ian Gillan and offering him the job? Or Glenn Hughes? Or even Tony Martin? No, you can’t. Because it’s ridiculous. For them, it’s very much a case of getting back on board with Ozzy, or effectively calling it a day as far as being commercial musicians anymore.

Vinny Appice, despite being a bona fide former Black Sabbath drummer, just doesn’t quite deliver the same raw appeal as being able to print “ORIGINAL LINE-UP” on all the various Black Sabbath posters, billboards, tickets and column inches that Bill Ward’s inclusion does. Ward is also reported to have overcome many of the health problems that caused him trouble during previous reunions, and to have gotten over the disputes he had with Iommi and Butler (which have been cited as to why he wasn’t part of the Heaven & Hell line-up).We suspect the aforementioned piles of $£$£ has something to do with that. On top of that, Appice is already busy with Kill Devil Hill, the band started by former Pantera/Down bassist, Rex Brown. It’s not as if Bill Ward has much pencilled in on his calendar right now.

But at what point did Ozzy decide that a Black Sabbath reunion was the best course of action? Only his bank manager can tell us that. Sales of Scream were down on those of Black Rain – sure, in part down to the fact that record sales are down everywhere for everyone - but also because no amount of pre-release PR shit-stirring generated by Osbourne’s jettisoning of Zakk Wylde was going to cover up for the fact that Scream wasn’t connecting with people. Ozzfest has suffered in recent years, being outclassed and outsold by Mayhem Festival in the States. The flimsy UK resurrection of the Ozzfest brand in 2010 barely seemed to cause a ripple of excitement even during the event itself. It’s clear to Ozzy (and, let’s be honest, to Sharon Osbourne too) that if he wants to remain at the top of the tree until his sooner-rather-than-later retirement from live performing, then the easiest (and most profitable) way for him to do it is at the head of a reunited Black Sabbath.

Listen to Ozzy Osbourne sing ‘Fairies Wear Boots’ last year:

Do I welcome this impending return of one of the forefathers of metal? Well, yes and no. Reviews of Ozzy Osbourne’s recent tours have generally reported his vocals to be in fine form, and as anyone that caught Heaven & Hell at Sonisphere 2009 will testify, Tony Iommi and Geezer Butler have both still got it too. Okay, so Bill Ward is something of an unknown factor, but irregardless, it looks on paper at least that a Sabbath reunion is would be able to pass muster in the quality stakes. But on the other hand, I saw the original line-up of Black Sabbath perform a decade ago at Ozzfest 2001. It was a great show. It is a great memory. Do I really need to see Sabbath again? With there even being a chance that they’ll, y’know, be shit and spoil my memories? Is that me just being selfish? Is there a time when a band should really just hold their hands up, admit that it’s over, and just let things lie? Isn’t this yet another reformation that festivals will no doubt jump onto as an excuse yet again to avoid promoting younger, fresher, and riskier acts as their main stage headliners?

The final Black Sabbath reunion will happen, and I daresay it’s going to happen in 2012. I’d be willing to bet a round of drinks that they’ll be one of the headliners at next year’s Sonisphere Festival. Despite the group having previously performed at Download, it is Kilimanjaro – the promoters behind Sonisphere – who seemingly hold all the cards when it comes to booking a reformed Black Sabbath. Not only did they put on last year’s UK Ozzfest, but they were also booked Heaven & Hell’s only UK festival slot. And yes, I realise Heaven & Hell were booked to headline Bloodstock Open Air 2010, but a reformed Black Sabbath isn’t going to be at Catton Hall next year – not only is Black Sabbath a much bigger fucking deal that Heaven & Hell (sorry, Dio fanatics, I’m just talking ticket-sales here), but as a silent partner behind Bloodstock, Kilimanjaro would demand the wider-appeal of Black Sabbath for their crown jewel event. It’s going to happen. It’s merely a matter of time.

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